Dell’Oro Group revises private wireless market projections downward as buyers hit pause on 5G

Dell’Oro Group revises private wireless market projections downward as buyers hit pause on 5G

According to Dell’Oro Group market research, the onset of private wireless networks is happening slower than analysts anticipated.

Once more, the group has revised its estimates for traditional wide-area private wireless segments downward. Regardless of this projection, revenue projections from small private cell RAN still anticipate exceeding one billion by 2027.

“Even with revenues coming in below expectations, our long-term position remains unchanged — we still firmly believe that private wireless is a massive opportunity,” says Stefan Pongratz, the vice president of the Dell’Oro Group.

Between 2022 and 2027, the group predicts total private wireless RAN revenues (including wide-area and small cells) will rise steadily at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24 percent. On the flip side, public RAN is expected to experience a moderate decrease in CAGR by 2 percent.

According to the report, the largest public RAN suppliers, such as Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia, are in a solid business position during this initial private LTE/5G phase. Further, operators and enterprises are more willing to explore non-traditional RAN suppliers in some wireless environments.

Interestingly, 5G currently dominates in China, while LTE rules outside China. By 2026, 5G NR is projected to outshine LTE.

According to the Dell’Oro Group, this industry’s risks are well-contained. Despite some pieces of the 5G enterprise puzzle still being put together, when suppliers with robust enterprise networks efficiently launch private 5G services, for instance, there could be a notable surge in demand for 5G across business settings.

Nevertheless, the group notes that organizations will take some time to recognize the value of private LTE/5G. Moreover, pricing must evolve as new turnkey solutions arise and competition increases.

“Market opportunity is not the same as a forecast and given the current progress, it will clearly take some time for the private wireless market to reach its full potential,” adds Pongratz. “In fact, our current forecast is for private wireless to reach roughly 10 percent of its potential by 2027.”

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